Tuesday, September 22, 2009

50MC’s 2009-2010 Fearless Fantasy Forecast: Dany Heatley


Dany Heatley’s ‘09 summer checklist:
  • Get out of Ottawa
  • Lay low all summer
  • Exercise No-Trade-Clause
  • Get out of Ottawa
  • Mow the lawn

Although Heatley’s lawn is grows to unbelievable proportions, he is going, going back, back to Cali. Heatley may not have been there before, but he’s there now, and you get the point. Specifically, San Jose.

In this trade, Heatley got everything he wanted. The main thing was getting out of Ottawa. He is now in a pretty good hockey market, but not a crazed hockey market (like in Canada) where the fans will allow him to perform and be a citizen of San Jose who plays professional hockey.

He also inherits the most prolific passer in this generation in Joe Thornton. Thornton has the most points in the NHL since the lockout – 424 – of those points, 316 of them are assists. Thornton, Heatley and Patrick Marleau were put on a line together by Team Canada and Detroit Red Wings Head Coach, Mike Babcock at the Olympic Orientation camp, and the three joked about how it would be a pretty nice line for the Sharks. However, Sharks’ Head coach Todd McLellan revealed this week that although a super line is possible, Devin Setoguchi will play right wing with Thornton and Heatley.

In San Jose, Heatley goes someplace where he knows somebody who can plug him into the social pipeline. In short, he knows a lot of key Sharks’ players. He has played with Thornton, Marleau and Rob Blake with Team Canada. He has played with Dan Boyle in the past and played with Joe Pavelski at the University of Wisconsin. Most importantly, Heatley played under McLellan for Team Canada at the World Junior Championships in 2000.

Heatley has proven that he can score. He has gone to the Stanley Cup finals. And he has a great singing voice. Now he has to prove that he can stick with one team and not be a distraction in the locker room. He does not have to be a leader with the Sharks, but simply a guy who can follow the rules and perform on the ice like he has done his whole career. In Atlanta, he was productive, but one incident led him to asking for a trade out. In Ottawa, for a few cloudy reasons, wanted out. This past summer, his character took a hit, but in San Jose he has the opportunity prove that he is a reliable team mate because as Eric DuhatschekHockey is not baseball, but once principle is the same – three strikes and you’re out.“ says, “

With all that being said, I fealessly forecast 52 goals, 39 assists for 91 points for a healthy season from Dany Heatley this season. (THN predicts – 44/38/82 – pre-trade)

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50MC’s 2009-2010 Fearless Fantasy Forecast: Brandon Dubinsky


Brandon Dubinsky hasn’t even participated in training camp yet and he’s already in John Tortarella’s doghouse. That’s the problem – he hasn’t been there. The former restricted free agent held himself out of camp last week because he did not reach a contract extension with the Rangers. The prolonged negotiations left fans and his Head Coach to wonder if he was even worth it.

Alas, on Saturday, Dubinsky and the Rangers reached a 2 year deal worth $3.7 million. A modest compromise for a resolution that took way too long to come to.

On any other team in the league, Dubinsky would be a good second line centerman with lots of potential. However, on the Rangers, Dubinsky immediately jumps in as their number one center and must prove himself this year to justify his holdout.

As the first line center for the Rangers, Dubinsky must improve on his 41 point 2008-2009 campaign. With the opportunity, he should. He is likely to have Marian Gaborik and Vaclav Prospal on his wings, who can both put the puck in the net and bring as much energy as Dubinsky does. The key is Gaborik. He mustRyan Getzlaf having hair before he is 30.
stay healthy. However, a healthy Gaborik is as likely as

Gaborik has already missed time from training camp. Compound that with Dubinsky’s 8 day hold out, and that puts the Rangers on page 1, while every other team in the league is already at page 20.

Gaborik is a great offensive player that can definitely help boost Dubinsky’s numbers. There is no denying that. However, if when Gaborik gets hurt, who will the Rangers turn to for scoring? Dubinsky has not proven he can carry a team. Prospal isn’t the type to be the go-to guy. Chris Drury can lead a team in the locker room, but his numbers have taken a drastic hit since coming to New York. Could Tortorella rely on the AHL standout and NHL rookie, Artem Ansimov, for consistent point production? It is a scary picture in New York without Gaborik. They were a terrible offensive team last year, but could be even worse this year.

Speaking of Ansimov, he has impressed in the preseason. If Dubinsky falters out of the gate, Tortorella will not hesitate to give this kid an opportunity. If you draft Dubinsky, be sure to add Ansimov to your watch list.

Now that Dubinsky is in camp and with his team, he has to come in with a chip on his shoulder. He has a lot of work to do, a lot to prove and a lot of responsibility to take on. How will he handle all of this? The Rangers’ season starts October 2nd against the defending champs. We shall see.

Taking all of this information into consideration, I fearlessly forecast 20 goals, 35 assists for 55 points. (THN predicts – 17/32/59). Dubinsky still has potential to breakout this year, but don’t overate him. He has the energy on the ice, the motivation behind the bench and the offensive creativity to play with Gaborik. A bright future is ahead for Dubinsky, but needs some offensive help.

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50MC’s 2009-2010 Fearless Fantasy Forecast: Nik Antropov


Nik Antropov. Nikolai f’n Antropov. He actually wasn’t as bad as some people would have you think (fyi: I think Steve Simmons is a babbling idiot. He’s right up there with Bob McKowen and Roger Lajoie).

Antropov finished last season with a career high 59 points, including 28 goals! 28 goals! He accomplished this while playing on the offensively challenged Toronto Maple Leafs and the even more offensively challenged New York Rangers.

Despite all this, he gets no love. He still cannot live down his reputation he built in Toronto as being a first round bust. Perhaps the reasoning behind the frustrations of Leafs’ fans is because Antropov was taken 10th overall in the 1998 entry draft ahead of the likes of Alex Tanguay (12), Simon Gagne (22) and Scott Gomez (27).

He took a little longer to develop at the NHL level, and the fans, media and coaches grew impatient. Antropov became the scapegoat for 40+ years of Maple Leaf failure. He was the whipping boy of the franchise until he was run out of town.

While in Toronto, Antropov was my favorite Leaf. I saw potential and a misunderstanding on why he was continually scrutinized. He was also a leader in the community.

He would occasionally spend his Sunday afternoons at the Pickering Flea Market and sign autographs and interact with fans; however many he had. He was consistently on a local Ontario fishing show, FishTV, which I religiously watch on Saturday mornings. He even continued to be on the show after he was traded to New York.

This off season, the Atlanta Thrashers signed Antropov to a 4 year/$16 million deal. He was signed to center the top line which includes perennial 50 goal scorer Ilya Kovalchuk and budding sensation Bryan Little (31 goals last year). I’m not strong in math, but basic arithmetic tells me that there is 80 goals between the two wings. Somebody is going to have to set up all those goals. I am not saying that Antropov is going to have 80 assists, but he will surely have a lot more chances to set up goalsin Atlanta than he did in Toronto or New York. Antropov has also proven he can put the puck in the net as well. He had a career high 28 goals last season and 26 the year before.

The question coming into camp is whether or not Antropov would be able to keep up with two dynamic skaters. I caution myself with preseason results, but Antropov has been clicking very well with his new linemates.

Last night versus the Carolina Hurricanes, Antropov had three assists including one from a goal from Little and one on the powerplay. It is evident that the Thrashers trust Antropov and are prepared to give him more ice time and responsibility. Again, it is only preseason, but it is refreshing to see that Antropov is compatible as a Thrasher.

He is 29, going into his tenth year in the league and has finally found his game. He is away from the hockey and media hubs and found a place in Atlanta (which could also be considered a media hub because of Ted Turner, but definitely not a hockey crazed market… you get it). He will not face the pressures he faced in Toronto and gets an opportunity to play with a legitimate goal scorer for the first time in his career. That alone makes him of fantasy significance.

Simply based on his reputation, he is surely to slip in your fantasy drafts. I fearlessly forecast Nik Antropov will score 23 goals and 42 assists for 65 points in a full season with Kovalchuk and Little (THN predicts – 72 games/30/35/65). Grab him in the late rounds as a depth center and you’re laughing.

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50MC’s 2009-2010 Fearless Fantasy Forecast: Patrick Marleau

Patrick Marleau had a great comeback season in 2008-2009 with 71 points in 78 games. He set a career high with 38 goals, in which 10 of them were game winners. In 2007-2008, he merely scored 48 points. For those of you who thought Marleau was finished after that, you probably were not among the leaders of your league.

I, on the other hand, picked him up in the late rounds and reaped the benefits.

This has been a terrible off-season for Marleau. From being the subject of multiple trade rumors to being blamed for the Sharks playoff demise to losing his captaincy, the media would have you think that Jason Allison has a better shot at 70 points.

Marleau must use the off-season speculation as motivation. The entire Sharks organization has A LOT to prove this upcoming season, but Marleau more than anyone else.

Wearing the “C” for any NHL team comes with a great deal of pride. It also comes with a great deal of responsibility. The load of an unsuccessful playoffs is solely carried by captain Marleau. Having lost his letter from the only organization he has played for is a slap in the face. However, it is also a harsh reality that Marleau was not good down the stretch.

This season, Marleau has to prove that he is a leader and show that striping him of his letter was unjustified. He can achieve this by leading the team in the locker room as well as on the ice where he needs to have another career year.

Possibly the biggest motivational factor for Marleau this upcoming season can be summed up in two words: contract year. For some reason, something happens to players when they are not guaranteed a contract the following year. Players from all major leagues become stronger, faster and more productive as if they were pressured from a all-powerful being. A being that allows them to continue living a comfortable life. It simply cannot be explained.

In all seriousness, a contract year is a very powerful factor in a players’ career. Marleau is unlikely to sign another $6.3 million per year contract, unless if he has an unbelievable season. However, if he wants to continue his career in the NHL as multi million dollar player, he must produce, produce, produce.

Marleau can either prove his critics wrong or he can buckle under the pressure. Since, the whole organization is under pressure, Marleau will have a good sized support system and will not be the only one to carry the blame, if the Sharks should fail. But the Sharks won’t fail – neither will Marleau. He (they) have too much on the line and too much talent.

Marleau is still among the fastest skaters in the league, he has never had major injury concerns and he proved last year that he can score a few goals. Given that Marleau plays a full schedule, he will score 35 goals, 40 assists, 75 points and he will help lead the Sharks past the first round. (THN predicts: 78 games – 35/35/70)

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50MC’s 2009-2010 Fearless Fantasy Forecast: David Krejci


David Krejci came out of obscurity and broke out last season with 73 points. He inherited the second line center duties and more minutes when Patrice Bergeron went down with another concussion and took full advantage of his opportunity. Whether he played with Michael Ryder, Milan Lucic, Blake Wheeler, Phil Kessel or Chuck Kobasew, Krecji showed his versatility by flourishing in any circumstance.

Nothing really went wrong for Krejci last year as he became an instant legitimate fantasy stud. For his efforts, the Bruins signed him to a 3 year/$11.25 million deal that has likely put Phil Kessel on the outs in Boston.

However, this offseason, the young Czech playmaker needed surgery to repair an injured hip. It was a successful minor procedure, but it is still going to keep him from playing the first few weeks of the season. The Boston Globe reports indicate that Krejci’s hip has healed quicker than expected and has been skating around with his team mates, but is still slated to miss the beginning of the season.

Injuries that keep a player from starting the season always hurt the players value. Firstly, their timing will be a step behind all the other players, who have been already playing at game speed for weeks. And secondly, they are susceptible to losing their job to players that got out of the gate quickly and ceased the opportunity left by the injured player.

In Krejci’s case, the second factor is what should worry current and potential Krejci fantasy owners. This is because there is a very capable and proven center right behind him in Patrice Bergeron – the same player he took the job of last season because of injury.

Bergeron is likely to start the season as the second line center and if he can get off to a good start and stay healthy, he will be able to reacquire that position even after Krejci comes back. Owners will have to hope for a speedy recvery from Krejci and that Bergeron falters out of the gate.

However, 50MC believes that Bergeron will take a strangle hold on that second line center position and remain their for the majority of the season. This leaves Krejci as the third line center and often floating on the second line. For the Bruins, this gives them very good depth at center, but for fantasy owners, it leaves Krejci with decreased minutes with good powerplay time.

Therefore, David Krejci will still have a good season, but not as good as last year’s breakout. 50MC fearlessly forecasts 13 goals, 33 assists, 46 points for Jon Heder on skates. (THN predicts: 78 games – 21/38/59)

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50MC’s 2009-2010 Fearless Fantasy Forecast: Alex Tanguay

Alex Tanguay is coming off one of his most unusual off-seasons in his career. After missing most of the second half of the season, inlcuding playoffs with the Montreal Canadiens due to an “upper body” injury (i.e. shoulder), Tanguay had minor arthoscopic surgery to repair his injured wing.

Then came July 1st, when unrestricted free agents were free to sign with any team. After all the big names came off the board, most contending teams were close to the salary cap, and Tanguay was still left without a team. For close to tow months, Tanguay became the best player available; therefore, was rumored to go anywhere from Atlanta to Nashville to New York (both teams) to Phoenix to Edmonton to Clarington Jr B.

Finally, Tanguay and the Tampa Bay Lightning came to a one year, $2.5 million agreement.

In a fantasy hockey perspective, there were many decent scenarios for Tanguay, but the prospect of teaming up with Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis on a francophone line, is surely the best case scenario for Tanguay. However, the three Quebecouers are unlikely to terrorize teams together at the same time, unless if it is on the powerplay.

Based on the success that Steven Stamkos had with St. Louis during the tail end of the season last year, including the World Championships for Canada, those two will likely start the year paired up. This leaves the Lightning with a 1A and a 1B line combination situation where Lecavalier will center Tanguay and Ryan Malone on the 1A line. To say the least, Lecavalier seems excited. On the 1B line Stamkos will center St. Louis and the winner of a top 6 spot, which is a competition between Steve Downie, Stephane Veilleux, Martins Karsums and Dana Tyrell.

Both lines should get plenty of opportunities to score, especially if Lecavalier can bounce back after a disappointing 67 point season, and if Stamkos can build off a strong finish to last year’s rookie season.

This means that Alex Tanguay has an opportunity this season to rejuvenate his career after two sub-par seasons. He can parlay a successful season with Tampa Bay into a bigger, more scure contract next year when he becomes a free agent once again.

Tanguay did not have a bad season last year, perse. His health was the only major road block last season. He only played 50 games, but scored 41 points. Had he not been injured, he would have easily eclipsed the 60 point plateau. Now put a playmaking and healthy Tanguay beside Lecavalier and Malone, who like to score, 60 points should be a breeze.

Tanguay’s injury may scare off other managers, but it should not scare you. Before last season, Tanguay averaged 76 games a season. Granted that Tanguay has a healthy season, where he plays at least 72 games, I would peg him for 21 goals, 43 assists, 64 points. Obviously, if he goes the entire season with no injuries, that number goes up. But 64 points is pretty good for a guy who is likely to be ignored in drafts because of last season.

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50MC’s 2009-2010 Fearless Fantasy Forecast: Brenden Morrow

Warning. Warning. Level 5 Sleeper Alert!

After a very successful 2008 season, when he finished with 74 points and a productive playoffs, Brenden Morrow was on his way to another successful season. However, a blown knee limited Morrow to only 18 games. He tallied 5 goals and 10 assists in those games.

Morrow returned to the ice last week at Team Canada’s Olympic Orientation Camp. It was the first time he tested his knee and by all accounts, it was a successful test. Morrow is on the bubble to make the Olympic team, and he himself thought it was a surprise that he even got an invite to the camp. However, for Morrow, the camp was more about testing his repaired knee than impressing the Team Canada brass.

Morrow is the type of sandpaper that any team needs. He has a proven track record in the playoffs as a member of the Dallas Stars, and his reputation landed him on the second line at the orientation camp alongside Dany Heatley and Mike Richards. He was thrown in with the big guns right away and did not look out of place.

This is great news for fantasty managers.

Due to Morrow’s shortened season, his pre-season ranking is high. Morrow was a top 20 rotisserie fantasy player in 2008 when you mix in his 32 goals and 105 PIM’s. This same player, with a surgically repaired knee comes into this season outside of the top 100 in most pre-season rankings. For example, Yahoo! has dropped him to #137 among the likes of Alexei Ponikarovsky, Drew Stafford and Brooks Laich. those are all good players, but I would rather have a proven goal scorer who has a better shot at 70+ points than any of those guys.

This often happens to players who had their latest season cut short to injury. They are left on the curb and simply forgotten. Similar to Morrow, Paul Kariya and Danny Briere are superstars who are coming back from injury and should be targeted.

Morrow is surrounded with an underrated group of productive skaters in Dallas. Their top six includes – Mike Ribeiro, Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson, Fabian Brunnstrom, and Mike Modano – which is as deep as any top 6 core in the league.

It is likely that if the pre-season rankings have forgotten about Morrow, managers in your league have as well. If you want to win your pool this year, highlight and asterisk Brenden Morrow for the later rounds because he is sure to drop that low. If you get him as a depth forward, you automatically give yourself a better shot at winning your pool.

I would expect Morrow to comeback to form this season: 31 goals, 39 assists, 70 points, 95 PIMS.

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