Hey guys. Remember me? The leaves are starting to turn, which means hockey is back and surely I too have to make a return to the blogosphere. Last season was the first ever season of 50MC's Fearless Fantasy Forecast. I hope it helped some of you out with your pools because it didn't do me much good (finished in 9th place, but earned me 3rd pick in this years keeper league re-draft, which allowed me to get Jonathan Toews).
Before I get started with this year's predictions, let's break down last year's forecasts.
CLAUDE GIROUX
Fearless Fantasy Forecast - 23/39/62
2009-2010 Season - 16/31/47
My very first forecast centered around one of the most talked about fantasy players around. Most experts (THN, Dobber, McKeens) were convinced that Giroux was poised for a breakout season after a very good 2009 playoffs. I drank the kool-aid. I (we) were way off. There is no doubting Giroux's talent, but the depth of the Flyers' offense, was/is the main conflict with fantasy owners. He had another very good playoffs last year (21 points in 23 games), and is surely to improve on a somewhat disappointing 47 point campaign.
BRENDEN MORROW
Fearless Fantasy Forecast - 31/39/70
2009-2010 Season - 20/26/47
Wow. My deepest apologies for this one. Not only did he finish under 50 points, he only had 69 PIM's. There was only one consistent line in Dallas last season and Morrow wasn't on it. James Neal and Loui Eriksson have taken over as top-line wingers alongside Brad Richards in Big D.
Sorry again.
ALEX TANGUAY
Fearless Fantasy Forecast - 21/43/64
2009-2010 Season - 10/27/37
I would say sorry for this one again, but I think Tanguay is more to blame than me. I thought 64 would be a moderate forecast for Tanguay. He was surrounded with talent in Tampa, and was an utter incredible disappointment. Not too sure what to expect from Tanguay in Calgary, but he seems enthused.
PATRICK MARLEAU
Fearless Fantasy Forecast - 35/40/75
2009-2010 Season - 44/39/83
In my defense, this forecast was made pre-Heatley trade. Obviously, if I had a shot at it again, I would put him over 80 points. Whether he is playing with Thornton or Pavelski, expect the same out of Marleau this season.
SCOTT GOMEZ
Fearless Fantasy Forecast - 21/50/71
2009-2010 Season - 12/47/59
I guess I was only 11 points off. He only scored 12 goals, but only took 180 SOG. Perhaps the Markov injury took away a few points from Gomez.
DAVID KREJCI
Fearless Fantasy Forecast - 13/33/46
2009-2010 Season - 17/35/52
Oh yeah. Not exactly bang on, but close enough. The point of this forecast was not to emphasize numbers, but to emphasize that he would not have a season like he did in 2008-2009 when he tallied 73 points. Expect around 50-60 points this season.
ALES HEMSKY
Fearless Fantasy Forecast - 25/48/73 in 76 games
2009-2010 Season - 7/15/22 in 22 games
Obviously this prediction is a little flawed because of Hemsky's injury, but I think my forecast was reasonable. I called for an average of 0.328 goals per game, while his season average in 22 games was 0.318. Hemsky is one of my fav's and I am pulling for him to play 80 games this season.
TJ OSHIE
Fearless Fantasy Forecast - 22/36/58
2009-2010 Season - 18/30/48
Not too far off. As expected from a young player, he started off slow, but picked it up in the second half. I was also drunk from the St. Louis Blues' kool-aid last year, which influenced me in boosting Oshie's numbers. A 58 point campaign would not be far off this season.
VALTTERI FILPPULA
Fearless Fantasy Forecast - 17/39/58
2009-2010 Season - 11/24/35
Ouch. Obviously I thought Filppula was a shoe-in to improve on his numbers from the season prior. With Jiri Hudler AND Johan Franzen gone, Filppula did not step up offensively. Maybe with them back this season, he will have some scorers to play with. I wouldn't reach for Filppula this season, but I would for Hudler.
MIKKO KOIVU
Fearless Fantasy Forecast - 25/49/74 in 82 games (0.91 PPG)
2009-2010 Season - 22/49/71 in 80 games (0.89 PPG)
Bang on!! Put another notch on the bedpost for 50MC. Who knows, if Koivu played those extra 2 games, he may have scored 3 points. This season, I would temper expectations keeping in mind that he had shoulder surgery on BOTH of his wings this off-season.
DANY HEATLEY
Fearless Fantasy Forecast - 52/39/91
2009-2010 Season - 39/43/82
A little of the disappointment of a season, especially in the goal scoring department; but can you really complain about a point per game?
BRANDON DUBINSKY
Fearless Fantasy Forecast - 20/35/55
2009-2010 Season - 20/24/44
At least I was bang on with goals. Assists are subjective anyways (kidding!). He did not click as well with Marian Gaborik as I thought he would. Can Derek Stepan be Gaborik's guy this year? A lot think he is. One thing is for sure - I will definitely be forecasting him this year.
JOHN TAVARES
Fearless Fantasy Forecast - 25/39/64
2009-2010 Season - 24/30/54
Again, not too far off. Obviously, I thought he would get a few more assists, but I guess there is nobody to pass to on the Island. I would expect 60+ points this season, as he gains more chemistry with Kyle Okposo.
NIKITA FILATOV
Fearless Fantasy Forecast - 24/25/49
2009-2010 Season - 2/0/2 in 13 games
So there wasn't a positive thing that can be said about this prediction. Even with Filatov back in North America this season, 49 points seems high - even with the positive reports out of training camp. I would peg him for about 35 points, if he plays regularly with the BJ's.
SERGEI SHIROKOV
Fearless Fantasy Forecast - 20/28/48
2009-2010 Season - 0/0/0 in 6 games
Ouch. He would have been a late round flier anyways, so he should not have broken your team, but still. Ouch. This was under the assumption that he would play wit the Sedins. Obviously he did not hack it with the big boys, but early reports out of Canucks' camp is that he is getting another shot this year. I'll keep you posted.
NIK ANTROPOV
Fearless Fantasy Forecast - 23/42/65
2009-2010 Season - 24/43/67
Good way to end of the 2009-2010 review. Almost bang on. If someone was to argue my prediction, they would bring up Antro's 67 points was done in only 76 games. But if you drafted him with my analysis, you would have been rewarded anyway.
So I didn't do quite badly. There were a few bad ones, but not bad for my first attempt. I think the analysis of each player is more valuable than the actual numbers anyways. The analysis provides you with something concrete to think about and used to justify your pick. I hope I didn't hurt too many of your teams and I look forward to helping you out this season with more forecasts.
Now that the preseason has started, I will try and bang out a forecast everyday until the season starts. This year, I will try and focus on players with some BUZZ (i.e. Derek Stepan) so I will read the forums to see who everyone is talking about, but in the meantime, post some players in the comments you want me to analyze and I will do my best to fantastically forecast them.
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